The Fluid End Game

This continues to be the most increasingly frustrating time I have ever faced professionally, and I’m sure thousands in Washington are having the same experience.

If you talk to 25 different members of Congress, you will hear 25 different scenarios on how the year is going to work out. For example, I had dinner Thursday night with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., who is optimistic that a compromise spending package will fly. On the other hand, I recently spoke with House Appropriations Chairman David Obey, D-Wis., who painted a bit gloomier scenario. This was troubling to me because Congressman Obey is always able to compromise and craft plans that Congress would approve.

Republicans are proving to be a very formidable opposition party. At the end of the day, Republicans will certainly claim victory. There will be no additional money for domestic programs and no strings attached on Iraq funding.

Despite the imminent threat of across-the-board cuts, I continue to think things will play out favorably for Community Action programs in the next week and a half.

We’re starting to see some cracks in unity among both parties. House Democratic appropriations strategy is different than the Senate Democrats’, and while the White House and House Republicans are on the same page, Senate Republicans are in a much different position than even 48 hours ago.

The Senate will move on an omnibus appropriations bill as early as Thursday, before the House moves on its bill. The Senate is expected to keep earmarks and pass a 2.4 percent across-the-board cut. The question is, “2.4 percent of what?” No one knows the exact details of the omnibus bill, particularly which programs are cut and by how much. Does the bill apply and across-the-board cut to the original appropriations total that was $22 billion above the President’s budget request, or are they further trimming the “split-the-difference” proposal? Assuming it still provides an increase over the President’s request, Community Action programs should receive an adequate increase for the year.

We are hearing that $250 million in emergency funding may be added for the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). By declaring it emergency funding, this will be included outside the regular appropriations bill.

The Senate stepping up first is a somewhat unusual move, but it should help jump-start the process. House tempers are white hot. It looks like it will take them a few more days to move forward on a bill.

This is what we call the “end game.” A variety of stimulants will be impacting the end game every hour, all day, all week, over the weekend and throughout next week. It’s extremely fluid, so stay tuned for the latest as I know it.

I will be having a lunch today with White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten. I am anxious to hear what he has to say about the end game. I plan to provide an updated blog here this afternoon.